[Salon] U.S. strategy of dual containment strengthens the China-Russia partnership—but limits remain



Reflexive opposition to China and Russia encourages an anti-U.S. axis—but damage can be limited; U.S. and Russia recognize risks of nuclear escalation.

  AVOID TWO COLD WARS  

U.S. strategy of dual containment strengthens the China-Russia partnership—but limits remain


An F/A-18E launches from the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the South China Sea, April 2, 2022. Photo: Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Javier Reyes / DoD
  • In response to U.S. and EU sanctions on the Russian oil industry, Russia exported more crude oil to energy-hungry countries in Asia. China purchased 8.42 million tons of Russian oil in May, a 55 percent increase from the same time last year. Russia is now China's largest source of oil. [BBC]
     
  • But the bilateral relationship goes well beyond energy. The Chinese and Russian militaries engage in joint exercises (and have for years), team up at the U.N. Security Council to undermine U.S. positions, exchange billions in trade ($147 B last year), and boast of a partnership with "no limits." Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin talk frequently—and both appeared at the BRICS summit on Thursday. [CNN]
     
  • With Russia increasingly isolated in the West due to its invasion of Ukraine, China has become more indispensable for Moscow diplomatically and economically. China-Russia relations developed into a solid partnership tracing back to 2014, when U.S. pressure on both prodded these historical adversaries toward a greater alignment. [Foreign Affairs]
     
  • However, despite claims of a "no limits" partnership, China and Russia are not strategic allies committed to one another's defense and development. Both pursue their own distinct interests. While a mutual threat perception toward U.S. hegemony has strengthened the relationship, those dynamics could change with a shift in U.S. policy. [WOTR / Yun Sun]
     
  • While China is willing to help Russia navigate U.S. and European sanctions, it won't sacrifice its own strategic position in the process. No two countries possess identical interests—China and Russia are no exception. [NRO / Daniel DePetris]
     
  • It may be too late for the U.S. to avoid a China-Russia partnership altogether, but it could limit the fallout. Given the combined conventional, economic, and nuclear might of a China-Russia axis, U.S. policymakers should adjust our strategy to avoid needlessly solidifying an anti-U.S. bloc. [Boston Globe / Stephen Kinzer]


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